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Elections are now in progress for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, although experts believe the party stands little chance of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and established a multi-party all-conservative government that lasted barely a year, is currently marginally ahead in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's popularity has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have stated they will not forming a government with the PVV leader, who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in the summer over a dispute concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a election period dominated by issues such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing shortage, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with some facing heavy losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the vote yields a party one MP. Of the 27 parties participating in the vote – which include senior-focused parties, youth parties, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and sports parties – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This significant division ensures that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – typically composed of four parties in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party becomes the largest party yet is excluded from power. But, critics and analysts say that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations may require several months, analysts indicate that after the most extreme government in recent memory, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a inclusive alliance headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9pm. A usually accurate exit poll is expected shortly after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will test possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the next four years and must undergo a vote of confidence in parliament before assuming power.